Runway incursion reality
Last week, a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report noting runway incursions have reached the levels of 2001 after being reduced dramatically in 2002 has been getting significant press. Most of the newspaper articles have been written with a sense of alarm. I was called to comment on the report on MSNBC. However, the simple truth is our air traffic only this year reached the levels of pre-9/11. There has actually been a decrease in runway incursions based on a percent of the total air traffic.
What is a runway incursion? According to the FAA an incursion occurs when any aircraft, vehicle, or person goes where it shouldn’t be in space reserved for take-off or landing. It may be a service truck crossing the runway while a plane is attempting to land. In some cases it might be a construction worker being where he or she shouldn’t be. It may be more dramatic, such as having a controller schedule two planes to take off and land on the same runway at the same time.
These GAO reports are bases on the fiscal year that ends on September 30. There were 401 runway incursions reported in 2001. Naturally, 2002 would have fewer runway incursions because air travel was dramatically reduced; hence, the reduction of incursions. In 2006 the total number of reported runway incursions was 330 and in 2007 that number rose to 370.
Another way of looking at this is that in 2001 there were 6.1 incursions per one million air traffic control operations. In 2007 there were 6.05 incursions per one million air traffic control operations. No, the sky is not falling, yet.
This being said, the air traffic control system in the United States is in a state of stress both from a technology and personnel point of view. Our tracking systems have not been upgraded in decades. Our air traffic control towers are in abysmal physical condition. And the most dangerous of all, are the air traffic control staffing problems.
The airline media is filled with stories about the technological hurdles that need to be overcome. The fighting is now over financing of the necessary changes. The costs will be substantial both for FAA as it installs new systems and for the airlines that must upgrade each and every flight deck to meet new specifications. The dozen or so Congressional committees that are wrestling with this system upgrade and the tax implications seem hopelessly mired in bureaucratic machinations.
The larger problem that will trump technology is the mushrooming ATC personnel problems. I wrote about it in August 2007 — Tired eyes watching the skies. The mismanagement has continued unabated. If someone with some common sense doesn’t step and take charge, our system will be hobbled and the problems being reported by the GAO will seem pale in comparison.
There are simply more air traffic control workers retiring than the system can replace. Once upon a time, new controllers were “seasoned” for at least a year at smaller airports before the were allowed to move up to the “big time” at airports like O’Hare, JFK, LAX or Atlanta. Today, they are being slotted in because there is a personnel shortage that is only going to get worse.
According to Government Executive controllers are working more overtime than ever before.
GAO found that in May 2007, 25 of FAA’s 315 air traffic control facilities had 20 percent or more of their controllers working six-day weeks. At 12 facilities, 20 percent to 29 percent of controllers were working six-day weeks. Thirty percent to 39 percent of controllers were working six-day weeks at seven facilities, while at six others, between 40 percent and 52 percent of controllers were working an extra day.
Air traffic controllers are not workers who can be hired one day and begin functioning the next. There is a long period of training. There is an important factor of experience. The GAO report went on to state, “it may take two to three years before controller overtime can be reduced at some facilities, as the agency acts to replace retiring controllers.”
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that with the current air traffic controllers working six-day weeks coupled with a lagging replacement program, fatigue is going to be a matter for growing concern.
The bottom line — the system isn’t broken yet. However, steps need to be taken now to start solving the controller shortage problems before our air traffic system slows.
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